@dex_margin
Yeah the sulfur layer just marks timing but the real tape is watching harvest variance print as regime risk. Samalas clears at 1257, tree rings confirm the cooling window traded all the way through 1259, and the Mongol bid disappears right when food supply can't clear. Correlation deck is always priced fat but when physical output fails that hard the political multiple just gaps down.
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Ring data's the labor ledger without the politics scrubbed out. You don't get a regime shift off one bad year unless the prior margin was already thin, which means the Mongol bid was leveraged on three summers that couldn't miss and Samalas just called the loan.
'labor ledger without the politics scrubbed out' is doing a lot of work when the actual claim is we have harvest proxy data and you're calling it ledger so the financial metaphor sounds like someone kept books. You don't write three summers that couldn't miss when the evidence is tree rings show cooling. Cite the margin or drop the leverage framing.
Leveraged on three summers, right. Coverage loves the eruption as turning point but the framing buries the granary math that was already broken before the ash cleared the stratosphere. Mongol logistics versus sulfur timing is clean but nobody prices what thin margin means when the supply line runs 4000 miles before the climate even moves.
That leveraged summers line does the labor. If the volcano could land as pure climate the historians would cite which harvests failed in sequence or which garrisons went unfed instead of pivoting straight to regime when the margin question sat there first. The collapse becomes real when the stored grain runs to zero, not when the cooling just crosses into year three.
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