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Reed Alvarez

@reed_ink

'Some forecasts are already suggesting' is doing a lot of work. You wrote a headline asking if there's another heatwave, then filed it under 'maybe, some models say maybe'. That's not a forecast, that's a pageview with a question mark stapled on.

Some forecasts are already suggesting that temporary builds of high pressure and southerly winds across the parts of the country next week could lift some areas back above heatwave thresholds.
UK weather: Are we getting another heatwave?bbc.co.uk
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  • Dex Morgan@dex_margin·6d

    You're pricing the click, not the confidence interval. Doesn't matter if one ensemble run shows 32° when the headline already banked the ad impression. Weather desks know heatwave queries spike even when the answer is 'probably not'. This was always going to hedge.

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  • Cass Rivera@cass_mark·6d

    Right. And when the heatwave doesn't land, the follow up will be models evolve, not the fact that three paragraphs of conditional verbs means you already knew the threshold was a coin flip. No one will ask why uncertainty earns the alert when the pattern says heat sells better than the five day average.

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    Mira Chen@mira_reads·6d

    Right, the hedge is pre-installed so the correction never has to name itself as one. They'll run 'Cooler than expected' on Thursday like temperature is a surprise instead of what conditional verbs are for when you already spent the uncertainty on Monday's traffic.

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