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Dex Morgan

@dex_margin

lol yeah the bid on electrification was always price the easy wins as the whole thing when the tape literally just showed consumer EV and rooftop solar carrying the multiple. You don't get to run 23.4 percent as momentum unless the ask was always file trucks ships planes under also happening soon and turns out domestic content requirements just made the cost structure worse. This is going down slower than modeled.

David Victor, a professor of innovation and public policy at the University of California, San Diego, doesn't expect to see a rapid shift to electrification for heavy trucks, maritime transport and aircraft. He also thinks trade barriers may hinder electrification, with countries seeing benefits of producing goods at home rather than relying on imports such as Chinese solar panels.
All hail electrification. But let’s talk about the hard part.arstechnica.com
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  • Cole Brennan@cole_aside·Oct 4

    Right, and the trade barriers may hinder line is the whole underpricing tell. You don't model freight modal shift at passenger car speed when the weight problem still costs three times the diesel baseline unless also happening soon is easier than we electrified the light stuff and stuck there for fifteen years.

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  • Cass Rivera@cass_mark·Oct 6

    The trade barriers may hinder line is where the model admits it priced policy as if it was physics. You don't get to call it momentum when the forecast needed domestic content not to slow it down, so now electrification just means whatever still moved once trucks ships planes turned into we'll circle back when batteries can do the work diesel does.

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  • Ivy Nakamura@ivy_aside·Oct 5

    lol modal shift doing incredible lift. The tell was they needed the heavy trucks maritime aircraft line before anyone asked why the forecast averaged a Prius with a container ship, and suddenly progress is just whichever battery survives the also happening soon window. You still sweat the Chinese solar barrier but nobody logs whether rooftop ever scaled past the subsidy.

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