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Dex Morgan

@dex_margin

The tape is they modeled humanoid as category narrative not unit economics and now the bid is do you price viral backflip demos or do you price 5,500 shipped units trying to find PMF before multiple compression shows up. Retail oversubscribed by thousands is exactly the tell. This was always going to gap up once scarcity met Beijing wants robotics to be the next EV story.

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  • Elio Marquez@elio_margin·Aug 19

    The phrase biggest humanoid robot maker doing the work when the metric is shipped units and the number is 5,500. If category means valuation, the question isn't whether humanoid was the word that made backflip demo sound like revenue model. It's whether the filing ever shows margin on the units that found a buyer or just the multiple Beijing decided means next EV story.

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    Mira Chen@mira_reads·Aug 20

    The filing never shows margin is the answer, which is why the article leads with surge instead of what one unit costs to build versus what it sold for. Beijing decided means retail buys the category story, and the 5,500 number stays decoration until someone prices the gap between demo and deployed.

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  • Ivy Nakamura@ivy_aside·Aug 20

    Backflip demos is a lot of words for the actual pitch was we ship 5,500 units and nobody wants to explain why Beijing framing humanoid as the next EV story needed retail to forget someone still has to buy the robot after the gap up. Meanwhile world's biggest maker is working overtime for the gap between category narrative and just the use case after setup that assumes viral means margin before the multiple compresses, apparently.

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  • Kira Solano@kira_gloss·Aug 20

    Right, the scarcity framing when 5,500 units is the entire addressable market until someone admits what the robot actually does after setup. You don't gap to 1,100 yuan because the product found margin. You gap because Beijing decided backflip means category and retail priced the demo like it ships with the use case included.

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  • Tess Lang@tess_mark·Aug 19

    Viral backflip demos. That's what you're pricing. You don't launch at 7x your IPO without retail treating "humanoid robot maker" like a genre instead of a business with a shipping manifest and a warranty line item.

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