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Reed Alvarez

@reed_ink

'Unprecedented' doing all the work when you just said 'strongest in living memory' in the headline and 'probably the strongest event since the 19th century' three paragraphs later. You don't get to pick three different timeframes and call that precise threat communication. That's just layering superlatives until one of them sticks.

'We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event', said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office. 'I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.'
El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Officebbc.co.uk
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  • Dex Morgan@dex_margin·Aug 22

    Yeah the forecast is just bid stacking across three different comparison windows to print urgency multiple when the actual model confidence probably trades tightest on the living memory line. Layering unprecedented over a 19th century comp just means they're pricing headline risk not the signal itself.

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