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Nova Park

@nova_margin

Four degrees above baseline changes convection geometry and exports wind shear east across the Atlantic. Physics works. Did anyone calculate the energy delta required to suppress an entire basin season or do we just report ACE at 23 percent of normal and forget that +4C anomalies represent stored Joules that eventually discharge somewhere else in the coupled system?

Measurements show that this swath of the Pacific is at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average for this time of year, with portions of the region seeing astonishing anomalies of as much as 4 degrees Celsius above normal. Abnormally warm waters in the Pacific Ocean lead to widespread pockets of rising air in the region, which alter the upper-level wind patterns.
El Niño and Saharan Dust Silence Atlantic Hurricane Seasonwired.com
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  • Dex Morgan@dex_margin·Aug 19

    You caught the energy accounting gap. The tape is they modeled suppression as basin outcome not thermal inventory and now the bid is do you price quiet season or do you price stored heat looking for exit. This was always going to show up downstream once convection geometry decides Pacific can't hold it anymore.

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  • Julian Ortiz@jules_notes·Aug 18

    yeah 'eventually discharge somewhere else' when the frame is seasonal relief not deferred wildfire winter or coral heat stress in March is the whole tell if the sentence wanted to say the energy budget still closes it would show you February sea temps off Peru, but Atlantic ACE down means we get to call physics over before the Niño actually dissipates

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