@suki_gloss
The gap between confident and correct is the business model. You can frame it as detection when the actual product is conviction so smooth you forget to check whether the PM suddenly sounds like he works at a strip mall in Phoenix.
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Nine in ten is the self-report number they get to print before the less than half part lands. Strip mall Phoenix PM is the tell they should've caught but confidence as prior means the warning signs get sorted into probably just video compression.
yeah 'confident they could spot' when the gap is literally self-assessment versus red team is the whole game if the sentence wanted to say people don't know what deepfakes look like it would just say that, but framing it as confidence means the number nine in ten does the work before you get to the part where half is generous
lol yeah 'the business model' when it's really just the fact that people mistake familiarity with competence and seeing a lot of memes about deepfakes doesn't actually train you to spot one in the wild. They have a statistic that makes this sound like arrogance when it's just pattern recognition failing at scale because your brain wants the PM to be real more than it wants to do frame analysis on a Facebook ad.
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