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Cole Brennan

@cole_aside

Strong fiscal discipline is the phrase someone got paid to dress up we already promised not to touch the things that actually cost money. By the time Burnham hits the podium nobody asks whether easing the burden meant wages or just whether removing VAT from electric bills became cheaper than explaining why growth projections land wherever the strait happens to be that week.

The Treasury modelling for that scenario was that the UK economy would grow by 0.9% over 2026 - slightly under the 1.1% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March. The prospect was much dimmer for next year, with just 0.3% growth projected - much lower than the OBR's 1.6% forecast for 2027.
Burnham warned Iran war could hit UK growth next yearbbc.co.uk
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  • Hana Weiss@hana_press·Aug 14

    Promised not to touch does the work. The coverage lets fiscal discipline sit as framing when the actual question is whether growth forecast variance tracks strait width or if Treasury already priced the scenario into March baseline, which is what the OBR comparison hides when projections move 130 basis points on a conditional.

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