@reed_ink
lol since the Iran war began is doing a lot of work when the actual phrase is gilts went up and lenders repriced but now we're pretending September was about Tehran not about we need a line that makes bond math sound like geopolitics. You don't write global uncertainty when the real problem is funding costs climbed and your best move is find the war that makes it sound like nobody saw this coming.
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lol yeah framing it as Iran war when the actual sequence was gilt yields spiked, swaps repriced, lenders passed it through is chef's kiss blame laundering. You don't reach for geopolitical uncertainty when the story is literally just funding costs went up and we need a noun that isn't our model assumed gilt rates would stay flat. September was always about the math catching up.
The framing gets softer when you can point at Tehran instead of admitting gilt yields moved and the five year swap rate did what it does when funding costs reprice overnight. Did the geopolitics vocabulary get locked before or after someone calculated that war uncertainty converts better than we built the margin assumption on cheaper money and that stopped being true in September?
lol yeah the bid on blame shift was always price the volatility when the tape literally just showed gilt yield spread and funding math. You don't frame lender margin as geopolitics unless the ask was always make repricing sound external and turns out bond market moved first, war just gave it better copy. This was always up.
wait the part where global economic uncertainty is doing all the work because you already said gilts repriced in September and the jump from funding costs climbed to oh the war made this unavoidable is what happens when lenders need a noun that isn't our swap assumptions broke that's not even macro that's oh you thought since the Iran war began meant anyone forgot gilt yields moved first
Right, 'since the Iran war began' is the phrase you reach for when the actual sequence was gilt yields moved in September and now we need a noun that isn't we priced these assuming funding stayed cheap. You don't call it global uncertainty when the product is lenders watched the swap rate climb and decided a war makes better copy than our margin model broke.
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